Pinaki M. Mukherjee

 Many first drafts of empirical economics papers run far too long. The usual cause is not too much analysis. It is a methodology and results section that is buried under a long literature review. A fixed word budget forces you to decide what the paper is really about. Here is a practical 5,000-word allocation for an empirical paper aimed at a Scopus-indexed journal. The core rule: protect Methodology and Results Together, your Methodology and Results should take more than half of the word budget. These two sections are where reviewers judge whether your work is credible. The Introduction should state the gap and the contribution early, and the Literature Review should serve your model, not tell the history of the topic. Section-wise word budget Section Target words Share What it should do Abstract 150–200 Standalone State the problem, dataset, method and main finding. Usually not...

  Version 1.1 | November 2026 Purpose: Standardised framework for developing, writing, validating and publishing economics research papers intended for peer-reviewed, Scopus-indexed journals. PART I: RESEARCH PAPER FRAMEWORK 1. PURPOSE AND SCOPE The Standard Economics Research Paper Framework (SERPF) establishes a common methodological and editorial standard for preparing economics research papers for publication in peer-reviewed, Scopus-indexed journals. The framework aims to ensure: Academic rigour and theoretical consistency. Clearly articulated research gaps and original contributions. Robust and transparent empirical methodologies. Reliable, reproducible and verifiable research findings. Consistency with international economics research and publication standards. SERPF applies to empirical economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, financial economics, development economics, econometrics, economic measurement, index construction and interdisciplinary economic research. 2....

My recent paper " Measuring the Impact of Import Substitution and Export Promotion on India's GDP Growth: An Econometric Analysis toward Viksit Bharat@2047 ," empirically examines whether these policy paradigms are substitutes or complementary components of India's long-run growth process. Using annual data for 1991–2025, the study estimates a Johansen cointegration framework, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), impulse response functions and a moderation model to analyse the interactions among GDP, manufacturing, exports and technological capability. Three findings emerge. First , manufacturing provides structural depth: Manufacturing value added has a strong long-run association with GDP and serves as an anchor of India’s equilibrium growth path. Second , exports expand the growth frontier: Export shocks produce persistent and progressively positive effects on GDP, rather than merely providing a temporary demand stimulus. Third , technology determines how effect...

A Collaborative Platform for India’s Economic Foresight: The Indian Business-Cycles Foresight Institute (IBFI) is an open, independent platform dedicated to strengthening India’s capability in business-cycle research, macro-environment measurement, and long-term demand foresight. IBFI brings together ideas, insights, and analytical frameworks from industry professionals, economists, researchers, data scientists, strategists, and corporate leaders who believe that India needs stronger, forward-looking economic intelligence. Founded by Pinaki Mukherjee, IBFI is built with the mindset of  collaboration, shared learning, and collective foresight —not ownership. What IBFI Stands For A shared space for deep economic thinking IBFI is designed as a neutral, non-commercial platform where anyone working on Indian macroeconomics, cycles, demand, forecasting, or strategic intelligence can contribute knowledge, data, methods, or perspective. An ecosystem, not an in...

  Herewith, I am sharing an insightful article (link given below) by Prof. Amartya Lahiri, discussing why the exit polls failed to gauge the nation's mood accurately in 2024.  The article emphasizes that relying on predictions based on the conclusions of competitors and peers can often lead to incorrect outcomes. The article suggests a strategy that somehow mirrors Stackelberg's game. A game in game theory is any interaction between multiple people in which each person’s payoff is affected by the decisions of others. In a Stackelberg game, there is one player (say “leader”) who moves first, and all other players (the “followers”) move after him. However, such strategies should not be adopted while doing forecasting. The forecasts, whether they are related to business, economics, or any other field, should be based on proven and tested models that are independent of the forecasts of other forecasters. However, it can be challenging because customers/users/audience of a for...

  The price of Brent crude oil has increased to $86 per barrel. The recent surge in price is primarily due to a significant production cut by the largest oil producer among the members of OPEC, the cartel of oil-exporting nations. This demonstrates greater control over production rather than pricing. The price trend in crude oil prices after COVID-19 is much lower than what we saw after the GFC. It seems that the pricing power of the oil cartel may continue to weaken. Major structural shifts are underway in the global energy space. Improvements in energy efficiency have led to a decrease in the amount of oil needed to generate similar economic activities. For example, in India, 0.7 lakh tonnes# of imported oil are required to create 1 US$ billion of GDP in 2021-22, compared to 1.6 lakh tonnes# in 2001. This trend may also be occurring in other parts of the world, as the fuel efficiency of vehicles has improved worldwide. Moreover, the increase in electric vehicles (EVs) is a major ...

CPI inflation fell to 4.9% in Mar’24 from 5.1% in Feb’24. The non-food segment, which accounts for 54% of the CPI basket, only contributed 27% to the overall inflation. Food, which accounts for 46% of the CPI basket, contributed 73% to the overall inflation. Moreover, the major source of overall inflation is just three commodities, namely vegetables, cereals and pulses. These three items represent only 18% of the CPI basket, yet they contributed to 55% of the overall inflation in Mar’24. Outlook: The inflation in these agricultural commodities is unlikely to decrease anytime soon due to the wages of agri workers, which have already been increasing. Additionally, there is a roughly 10% wage increase announced in the Govt. rural employment guarantee scheme which is implemented from April 2024. These wages often serve as a benchmark for determining wages for agricultural workers.